Drag
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Post by Drag on Mar 1, 2011 20:33:29 GMT -5
Does anyone know how much she would have to sell to debut at #1? Probably 400 K. GaGa is over 100 million AI and she'll easily sell 250 K (especially with the video) as well as the streaming points. If she gets 400 K + 30 AI she has a decent shot.
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Post by Till Da World Ends [MARK] on Mar 1, 2011 20:35:59 GMT -5
Itll prob be another Circus #3 type situation
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Post by - `J0EL™ on Mar 1, 2011 20:36:38 GMT -5
I guess she will debut at #2, I see this selling 300K MAX. But stranger things have happened.
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Drag
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Post by Drag on Mar 1, 2011 20:38:03 GMT -5
I guess she will debut at #2, I see this selling 300K MAX. But stranger things have happened. LOLLLLOL! I wouldn't count her out . GaGa may decline a bit and she might barely make it ALA Womanizer.
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Billy Uranus
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Post by Billy Uranus on Mar 1, 2011 20:42:30 GMT -5
So that would be two #1 debuts in a row? Is that normal on the hot 100? Obviously you guys know how I feel about that chart so I don't keep up ;D
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Drag
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Post by Drag on Mar 1, 2011 20:45:28 GMT -5
So that would be two #1 debuts in a row? Is that normal on the hot 100? Obviously you guys know how I feel about that chart so I don't keep up ;D She's had 2 consecutive #1 debuts (3 and Hold It Against Me). Mariah Carey has the most #1 debuts 3 (Fantasy, One Sweet Day & Honey). If she gets another #1 debut she'll tie Mariah for the most debuts and get the official most consecutive #1 debuts .
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Monroe
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Post by Monroe on Mar 1, 2011 21:51:05 GMT -5
Does anyone know how much she would have to sell to debut at #1? We don't even have a release date for the song yet. There is no way we could project what she would need to sell if the date hasn't even been announced. I am thinking her team is going to wait for Gaga's song to die down and then release the second single to get that 3rd no.1 debut, and tie Mariah. That would bring her up to 5 #1 hit singles, and also be great press for the album at that point. That being said I wouldn't expect it to sell as much as HIAM did. 300-330k would be very solid. I actually think Gaga and Britney's camp are doing a great job at not directly going against with one another. My guess is after Britney releases her second single Gaga will end up releasing hers a month after.
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___D___
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Post by ___D___ on Mar 2, 2011 1:18:44 GMT -5
I don't think this song can get to #1 first week out, no matter how good it may be. The approach needs to be different. Radio will not be jumping on the second single as fast as they did with HIAM, so they may need to hold off digital release until the song has had a signifigant spin increase. They would need to release the second single to radio within the next week for that to happen, though. Either that or, like I said, stage a massive Britney download campaign as soon as the song's released digitally
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Post by ___D___ on Mar 2, 2011 1:27:10 GMT -5
This era is shapinhg up to be exactly like Mariah's "E=Mc2". The hyped first single ran out of gas quickly, the public finally realized that this really IS all they are going to get out of Britney for the rest of her career, and they aren't impressed, so everything else will under perform. I predict the album will not even sell 1 million copies in the US. I predict around 300k first week sales, around 800k total, a 2nd single that quickly stalls outside the top ten on top 40, and a 3rd single that misses the top 20, and once again no performances from Britney besides a pre-taped Good Morning America concert. She will not perform at the VMA's, the Teen Choice Awards, or the Ama's but her fans will create rumors that she might... as they usually do, just to stay in denial that their favorite pop star has been DOA for years now. For the album's performance, I think it's too early to tell. Her second single could really sky-rocket. You're also leaving out the fact that a rerelease could happen in the fall. But for everything else, you're probubly right. The only thing I'd like to add, though, is that I'm not so sure it would make a difference if Britney did alot of promo for this album. She has her strong fanbase that will give her that 300,000 out of the gate, but it's up in the air after that. The genreal public knows who britney spears is and has made up their mind on whether they'll buy her music or not. To get that intregue, she's going to need to change her image, drastically change her sound, and her role in the whole process.
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Billy Uranus
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Post by Billy Uranus on Mar 2, 2011 7:11:50 GMT -5
People usually don't have a succesful album after a comeback right? Look at Santana, Mariah Carey, and Green Day. Makes you question whether a comeback album makes sense or if they should just call it a late career fluke.
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Post by - `J0EL™ on Mar 2, 2011 9:31:21 GMT -5
People usually don't have a succesful album after a comeback right? Look at Santana, Mariah Carey, and Green Day. Makes you question whether a comeback album makes sense or if they should just call it a late career fluke. Madonna did with her "Music" era. ROL was her commercial and musical comeback.
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Post by BRiTNASTY on Mar 2, 2011 10:07:19 GMT -5
Apparently Ke$ha does backing vocals on this, but only some shouting part where theres a repeition of "GOING TILL THE WORLD ENDS. TIL THE WORLD ENDS."
Who knows if its true, it was reported by a member on PJ.
But as Dr Luke has made this album by self-serving all his family and friends on it, I'd believe it.
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Post by BRiTNASTY on Mar 2, 2011 14:37:15 GMT -5
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Post by - `J0EL™ on Mar 2, 2011 15:04:02 GMT -5
She looks PISSED!
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Monroe
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Post by Monroe on Mar 2, 2011 15:53:50 GMT -5
It's being released on the 14th (radio and/or iTunes). That is a little less than two weeks from now. Which should be a good amount of time to let Gaga slow down a bit on the sales front. She sold 280k this past week, with a dip of 44%. Looking at the standard 20% drops for the next two-three weeks that could put her at selling at most 220k but more likely less than 200k when it's time for Britney to accumulate points to debut on the Hot 100 considering she actually does release on the 14th. The only huge problem I could see her dealing with would be Gaga's airplay.
She's at 107 million in AI now and growing with multiple formats, but those gains will likely tap out within the next few weeks, if Grenade which was a success on multiple formats peaked at around only 130 million AI I don't BTW will surpass it, or if it does not by much. At some point it's going to stop growing, and peak.
I can see Jive doing one of two things. Releasing on a Monday to get a full week of sales, or waiting a week and then releasing it like they did with Wmz and 3.
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Post by kevinkdc on Mar 2, 2011 21:22:34 GMT -5
I hate what she is wearing, other then that I like the cover. Is there a clip of this I can listen to ?
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Monroe
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Post by Monroe on Mar 2, 2011 21:25:03 GMT -5
It's not out yet.
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Post by ___D___ on Mar 3, 2011 3:54:59 GMT -5
I love that wall paper.
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Drag
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Post by Drag on Mar 3, 2011 9:33:22 GMT -5
Worst clip so far .
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Post by - `J0EL™ on Mar 3, 2011 9:51:47 GMT -5
Mehh. I'll wait to hear the full thing first before I make a judgment.
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Monroe
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Post by Monroe on Mar 3, 2011 12:40:51 GMT -5
I actually like it. If the clip is legit. It's nothing new. It is a bit Ke$ha sounding though, you can hear similar elements in the bridges of both Cannibal, and We R Who We R, but I actually think it bares more of a resemblance to Jessie & The Toy Boys 'We Own The Night'. I don't think this song being released will do her many favors though. Hopefully it's catchy.
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Post by taylor on Mar 3, 2011 16:07:01 GMT -5
FULL SONG LEAKED.
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Post by - `J0EL™ on Mar 3, 2011 17:26:38 GMT -5
This will be bigger than HIAM!
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Drag
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Post by Drag on Mar 3, 2011 17:52:50 GMT -5
From Twitter
I'll be visiting @ryanseacrest & @1027kiisfm tmw morning to play the FINAL version of Till The World Ends for everyone. -Brit
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Post by - `J0EL™ on Mar 3, 2011 17:53:41 GMT -5
britneyspearsI'll be visiting @ryanseacrest & @1027kiisfm tmw morning to play the FINAL version of Till The World Ends for everyone. -Brit OMFG
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